How Will Gadhafi Go?

A Toronto Star article published yesterday called Few exits open to Gadhafi, provides some insight and speculation as to the fate of the long-time Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The following image, published as part of the article provides an up-date as to the progression of the battle between rebel groups and the Libyan army.

Current State of Affairs in Libya

The article presents some interesting comments about the fate of Gadhafi and whether he will remain in Libya until the end or if he will attempt to flee the country. As with many wars and other civil unrest, it is difficult to gain an accurate picture of the situation as the government claims to have made progress towards defeating the rebel groups while the rebel groups deny having lost ground to the military.


Gadhafi has made contact with Libyan allied countries and it is speculated that he might attempt to flee the country and seek refuge in one of these countries. An expert interviewed for the article suggests that Gadhafi might instead try and convince countries like Egypt, also recovering from political activism resulting in the removal of Hosni Mubarak from office, that rebel fighters in Libya are part of the terrorist organization Al Qaeda and to prevent them from entering Egypt. It has not yet been confirmed if the rebel groups are indeed affiliated with Al Qaeda or other terrorist organizations. As the conflict continues, countries around the world are uniting against Moammar Gadhafi.


While much of this information is speculative, it does provide some insight from experts as to possible outcomes of the conflict in Libya. If Gadhafi leaves, he is facing an International Criminal Court trial at the Hague related to the war crime charges. The more likely scenario is that Gadhafi will remain in office until the bitter end as he has maintained power in Libya for forty years (and is not likely to willingly relinquish power), and because by remaining in Libya, he can avoid standing trial (for the time being).


An article published on the Huffington Post (Libyan Rebels Reject Potential Gaddafi Offer To Step Down), suggests that the leader is in fact trying to hand power to the head of parliament however that the sum of money he would receive in exchange is insufficient for him to agree. Other aspects of this agreement include his family being guaranteed safety and to not be put on trial. The sources of this Reuters article imply that if Gadhafi stepped down, the country would descend into civil war which is a dangerous situation. Keeping Gadhafi in office could assist in negotiations and preventing a full civil war in Libya. Whether an offer for Gadhafi to step down has officially been in negotiations is still unclear. The information in this article suggests that the contact with allied countries in Africa and the Middle East is in fact for the purpose of seeking a safe haven for Gadhafi and his family.


Conflicting reports on the same issue. It remains to be seen what will actually happen with Gadhafi either stepping down from power or being forcibly removed from power. Hopefully the conflict will be resolved without becoming a country-wide civil war. It is clear that the conflict in Libya will not be as easily resolved as the revolution in Egypt which was remarkable for how quickly Mubarak stepped down.


As the conflict in Libya drags on, many people are left stranded far from home in Libya. There are a great number of foreign workers in Libya, many of whom are stranded and are trying to leave the country as quickly as they can. Without passports or government identification, this can be very difficult.
Time released a photo essay Workers Lost in Libya's Turmoil that gives you a sense of the chaos of people trying to flee the country.


I think it is an exciting time as countries begin to question their government and in some cases protest for change. So far this year, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have all protested against the government. Will 2011 be known as the year of the protest?